5G has gradually become the industry chased by major capital markets. Under the preemption of capital, 5G market will be in what direction? In the case of fierce international competition, what are the advantages China can make to stand out?
5G market opened in 2020
In accordance with the Ministry of Industry Planning, 5G market is expected to open in 2020. 2018 to 2020 5G product R & D pilot phase, the main goal is to carry out 5G pre-commercial test; from 2018 to 2019, to complete the 5G scale test, add new technologies, end-to-end interoperability test and terminal prototype test; 2019-2020 Completed 5G network pre-commercial, the formation of operation-oriented technology system, friendly business experience testing, to carry out planning, networking, construction.
Some organizations and write for us technologies estimate that in 2030, 5G will contribute 6.3 trillion yuan, 2.9 trillion yuan and 8 million yuan in direct contribution to 5G’s total output, economic growth and employment opportunities. In terms of indirect contribution, 5G will drive The total output, economic value added and employment opportunities were 10.6 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan and 11.5 million respectively.
Different from 4G, Wei Kejun, senior engineer of China Information and Communication Research Institute, told the reporter that the 5G can greatly enhance the network capacity and user experience rate. According to the 5G performance indicators determined by the ITU, the peak rate of the cell reaches 10-20Gbps, User experience rate of up to 1Gbps; the other hand, will also be deeply integrated with the industry applications, such as car networking, industrial Internet and other industries, through information technology to help the traditional industries to achieve industrial upgrading.
The birth of 5G and future commercialization will undoubtedly bring huge changes to many industries. For example, at present, the 4G mobile phones in our hands are really going to be eliminated or updated by 2020?
From 2G to 3G and then to 4G, mobile phones will be replaced, but as the current 2G mobile phones can also use the same, “now 4G mobile phone to the 5G era cannot on the 5G network does not mean cannot be used, because then 4G network is still there, 4G and 5G compatible network is also. “Tatsu technology founder and CEO Huang Xiaoqing told” economy “reporter, 5G era will introduce new support for the use of 5G mobile phones, and is 4G The network is compatible with each other.
From the perspective of the 5G technology route, it mainly consists of two technical routes: one is 4G evolutions and the other is a new 5G air interface. According to Wei Kejun, these two routes will coexist for a long time. 4G evolution is based on the existing 4G framework and by introducing a series of key technologies to enhance the experience of 4G users, “From this point of view, existing 4G handsets can still be used normally, will not be eliminated, and will have a better user experience.” Another route is 5G new air interface, it will adopt the new band, new technology to achieve, cannot be backward compatible, “from this perspective, 4G phones cannot use 5G network.”
With the arrival of the 5G market, higher rates and lower latency can help mobile phones to achieve more powerful functions. Liao Roaming, general manager of Datang Mobile Research & Planning Department, told Economic reporter that the 4G Smartphone’s that we now generally use can also realize the functions of taking photos and games in addition to the basic functions of communication socialization. “The future 5G mobile phones, it is expected to support new technologies such as AI, VR and AR. It will help us understand our habits, hobbies and even our feelings. Based on these personalized information, we will provide us with the same personal services as a butler. Plan our work life, deal with the needs we have put forward. “Therefore, by then, the Smart Phone in the 4G era may be replaced by the Intelligence Phone in the 5G era.
4G to change life 5G to change the world
“The frequency of phone changes in China is very high, about 12 months to 14 months.” Huang Xiaoqing quipped, in fact, the current mobile phone is eliminated, the people engaged in the mobile phone industry is the happiest, because many people will be new Phone Of course, the 5G era has changed not just handset makers but also the Internet of Things. Tang Xiong Yan said that the Internet of Things is a very important application area of 5G and we will usher in a new era of interconnection of all things. 5G will provide better network conditions for the entire economic development, such as industrial upgrading.
5G bring changes, can be summarized in one sentence, that is, “4G change life, 5G change the world.” As of the third quarter, China’s 4G users reached 947 million, accounting for 67.9%. More than two-thirds of users are already using 4G handsets. The changes that 4G brings to our lives are what every 4G user can feel personally.
Of course, 5G is not only to increase the network speed, mobile phone business and other aspects of application, in ordinary people’s life, 5G there is one of the largest, “killer” application is intelligent robots, Huang Xiaoqing told reporters, 2040 intelligent robot The same as the number of human beings. For example, the currently developed cloud smart robot places the robot’s brain in the cloud and connects to the robot’s body through the mobile network, while the 5G network takes the role of the neural network of the cloud smart robot. “At that time, the bandwidth required by robots would be ten to 100 times greater than that of human beings, so the main purpose of 5G networks is to serve robots.” Similarly, 5G can support family nannies and family sweeping robots that can support Cell patrols, robotic attendants that can support unmanned supermarkets, etc., are all possible changes to see in the future.
In addition to artificial intelligence, Wei Kejun also said that the 5G’s substantial increase in network capacity, subscriber speed, delay and reliability will drive the upgrading and application of many industries such as AR / VR, Internet of Things, car networking, industrial internet, UAV and so on.
Capital competition is mainly in the secondary market
Many large domestic capital are actively concerned about and seize the 5G market. Ma Zhanjiang, director of the Office of Communications and Technology Commission of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told Economic reporters that in terms of manufacturing, the 5G industry includes such groups as CITIC, Huawei and Datang. From the perspective of business, other than the top three application providers, other Internet companies also offer Close; from the promotion point of view, the three major application providers are very concerned about the 5G, but mainly from the operational level of China Mobile. Different enterprises pay attention to the point of view, the focus is not the same.
5G industry chain, including the core network, terminals, chips, mobile phones, test instruments or meters and other fields, telecommunications experts Chen Zhigang on the “economy” reporter said that capital concerns can be divided into band, the first wave can see equipment vendors and application providers, the second Wave can catch the middle of manufacturers, the third wave can grasp the industrial manufacturing and other related information solutions provider. “This is a process that continues to mature.”
“At present, the 5G market is more active mainly include equipment manufacturers such as Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson, Nokia and other chip manufacturers including Qualcomm.” Huang Xiaoqing told reporters that the handset manufacturers have not yet actively involved, after all 5G networks does not exist yet.
Tang Xiong-yan also believes that, for now, 5G may affect the relatively large number of communications manufacturing and communications operations in the area, a lot of capital is still in some equipment manufacturing, chip, technology research and development and other fields. “There are a lot of applications of 5G are not really clear at this stage, the market development in the future may give birth to some new applications.”
In fact, the current 5G capital concerns mainly concentrated in the secondary market, covering operations, equipment, components, operation and maintenance and other key aspects of the mobile communications industry chain, Liao radiating that the mobile communications market, focusing on the accumulation of technology, with some fine Sub-area individual manufacturers, most of the manufacturers are in this industry deep plowing more than 10 years or even decades of businesses.
At the same time, the investment of 5G is also a long-term and continuous process. “Taking Datang Mobile as an example, the research and reserve of 5G key technologies were launched in 2011, and the long investment cycle has also restricted the entry of start-up companies.” In Liao Raoming view, high technology accumulation requirements, long investment cycle and other characteristics, determines the 5G in the mobile communications capital concern is mainly in the secondary market.
5G era of the future expectations
From a goal point of view, the core of 5G development is to increase the network capacity and speed of existing mobile communications by 100 times. Huang Xiaoqing told reporters that the speed is not single refers to the terminal’s communication data, but refers to the entire base station’s total communication data; capacity is that the total number of terminals can be accommodated per square kilometer to be increased 100 times, which means that communication capacity increased 100 times, The terminal’s capacity to increase 100 times, 5G upload data to reduce the time more than 10 times 4G.
In addition, Huang Xiaoqing said that we still have three important goals. One is that the 5G era can greatly reduce the cost of bandwidth and greatly reduce the average cost of a base station, which means that the number of base stations may increase by more than 10 times.
The second goal is to increase the effective use of frequency. Nowadays, the frequency is getting less and less, but more and more base stations and terminals are more and more important, so that the efficiency of frequency and spectrum usage can be effectively improved through submit new technologies.
The third goal is in networking, 5G network may have to break away from our traditional only base station and terminal communication, may become a series of technologies through the base station and terminal, terminal and terminal, autonomous network Improve overall network usage efficiency and reduce battery usage so that our handsets can take longer as well.
“For example, we are all now on the Internet at the base station. If you are in a room with a wall to communicate with your cellphone, and it happens that your colleague does not call at the doorway, then your cellphone goes through his cellphone To reach the base station will make the phone energy-saving, such technology in the past no way to do, but the future in the 5G era is possible, through effective self-organizing technology can save energy. “Huang Xiaoqing said.
In fact 5G there is a very important way to improve frequency and efficiency is to use the unused public frequency, “We call this cognitive radio”, Huang Xiaoqing said that now to some operators or state agencies made License, but many frequencies are not used. “For example, there are many frequencies used to make TV broadcasting in radio and television. But now people are watching cable television, and those with a lot of frequencies are not used.”
And this again faces the question of how to avoid conflicts if those frequencies need to be used? In response, Huang Xiaoqing said, 5G technology has a mechanism to humiliate each other, cognitive radio is a very smart radio, such as a master of frequency radio and television, if the mobile phone to the other side, check to this place did not broadcast any Of the TV signal, you can use the frequency there, if used to automatically escape, in this way you can make all the required 5G frequency is developed.
In addition, 5G to achieve real commercial applications, there are many problems to be solved. Wei Kejun said on the one hand, 6GHz and above will be the first high-frequency mobile communications applications, the chip, device performance requirements higher, the industry chain is not complete, will be 5G applications have a great application; the other hand, with There is still a lot of work to be done in the integration of industry applications. More research is needed in terms of requirements and business models. From the current point of view, at the initial stage of 5G deployment, the mobile Internet business will remain the major application scenario of 5G.